Unicorn Probability by Funding Round
- DIP
- May 6
- 1 min read
Our new data shows how the probability of reaching unicorn status increases with each funding round:
Seed: | 0.5% |
Series A: | 1.9% |
Series B: | 4.0% |
Series C: | 7.4% |
Series D: | 12.4% |
Series E: | 17.9% |
Series F: | 24.3% |
Series G: | 27.6% |
Series H: | 31.0% |
Each round significantly improves a company's chances of reaching a $1B+ post-money valuation. At seed stage, just 1 in 200 startups will become a unicorn. By Series H, this rises to nearly 1 in 3.
The steepest increases occur between Series B and Series F, where the probability more than quintuples from 4.0% to 24.3%.
What this tells us: while early-stage investing offers the highest potential returns, the risk is also substantial. If you are an investor, think of this as your “floor“ benchmark: you should be doing better than these odds at any round to have a chance of being a successful startup investor.
Thank you to the Stanford University Graduate School of Business Venture Capital Initiative team for spearheading this research.
Stay tuned with Pre-IPO Watch
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